Well first of all the risk of lymphoma from biologic medications is true.However its extranodal T-cell lymphoma. That cancer primarily affects young males, especially in adolescent and young adult patients with Chrons Disease (especially boys.) That eliminates most of us on this forum. In terms of the rest of the numbers, trying to figure them out will make you crazy (likely part of my personality issues as thats what I did fro 30 years)
You could take the two sets of numbers and do a two tailed analysis, BUT the answer is painfully obvious before you do the multitude of calculations that would even task a super computer. 1:50,000 (and mostly teenage boys) vs 100% for the progression of PsA if left untreated.
Most of the folks here are early in their disease so are mostly concerned with “joint pain” I hesitate to mention that is the least of the worries. Now I’m not minimizing that issue, certainly losing the use of your feet as has @Seenie is bad, as is the deformation of other joints lake my shoulders. One has to remember that PsA is far more than that. My heart has PsA, I have had numerous hospitalizations for that as well as a stroke from the resulting SVT. My Granddaughter has PsA related problems with her kidneys which have essentially shut down. Now a 100% chance of those issues happening vs a 1:50,000 chance of a very treatable cancer (if caught early) seems to me a no-brainer…
Back to the Lottery thing and buying one or many tickets. (I don’t buy any, I prefer playing cover bets on the roulette wheel of which I am way ahead) The cancer thing is just exactly that. Easily forgotten is the fact that HALF of the population will get cancer in their life time. Its a coin flip whether you will or won’t. Buying one more lottery ticket that increases your 50-50 chance of cancer isn’t going to change anything. (well if are in the 50% that get cancer anyway, you could spend some time ranting on the internet that XYZ caused your cancer so don’t be like me and do XYZ because you will get cancer)
BTW I have cancer it was caught early and treated. I go in on the 15th for my every 18 month colonoscopy to remove any new spots. The fact is I don’t even think about it until my post card comes reminding me of my appointment.
Of course there is a link in multiple diseases and cancer. It causal however. All of these diseases have a breakdown in the immune system. How it shows up is a crap shoot (another game I don’t play)
We do have a cover bet. We see our docs several times a year Any cancer should be detected early making it treatable (still scary as hell) and consequently not a huge big deal. The conclusion of ALL the researchers and number crunchers is the same in regards to biologics. The advantages far outweigh the risks…
You also want to be careful of the numbers (especially on internet sites.) The often intermingle Absolut risk and relative risk A relative risk of 100 percent means your risk is twice as high as that of someone without that risk factor. A 200 percent relative risk means that you are three times as likely to develop that condition.
Risk seems greater when put in these terms. A 100 percent increase in risk may seem enormous, but if the risk began as 1 in 100 people, a 100 percent increase in risk means that 2 out of 100 will be affected. not so much.
lymphoma risk is increased in a number of autoimmune conditions (including those on biologics and those not, compared with the general population: rheumatoid athritis (3.2 times higher),[ systemic lupus erythematosus (3-8 times), Sjögren’s syndrome (4-5 times), sarcoidosis (4-10 times), psoriasis (2 times), Sounds horrible.
Your life time risk however is less than 2 in a hundred, at worst it becomes 4 in hundred. (treated or not) 86.4% of lymphoma patients survive. See what happens when you run absolute risk and relative risk together. The casinos make a fortune of this. The advertise 95% payout on slots… It makes people assume they will only lose 3 cents of every dollar they gamble. They don’t. Statistcally you have to pull the handle 1000 times to reach that number. Pull the handle once and you have nearly perfect chance of losing. Pull it ten times and its most likely you will break even,
Your chances of a cancer problem are VERY low indeed. One immunologist I know claims that your chances of dying from lymphoma are actually HIGHER if you don’t have treated autoimmune disease because it won’t be detected in time to treat. Thats certainly the case for me and my cancer.